Brewer's Minute: The Black Bolt
Hey, everyone. It's time for another Brewer's Minute. We are right in the middle of Aether Revolt spoilers, but no matter what comes out the rest of the week, the best card in the set has already been revealed: Fatal Push. Who would have thought that a simple one-mana uncommon could be the most important card for Standard, Modern, and probably Legacy from the set? As such, today we are going to talk about why Fatal Push is so important, with a focus on Modern, but we'll talk about Standard a bit as well. By the time we're done, you may just toss your Disfigures and Dismembers in the trash to make room for Fatal Push!
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Transcript
If you take a minute and look at the most played cards in the Modern format, two will stand out above the rest: Lightning Bolt and Path to Exile (which are literally the #1 and #2 most played cards in the format). This makes sense. Modern is a super-fast format with tons of decks that can kill you on Turn 3 or 4, and as a result, having cheap instant-speed interaction is at a premium. Oddly, black—the color I most associate with removal—is missing a member in the pantheon of great removal spells; at least, it was until now. With the printing of Fatal Push, black gets its very own Path to Exile or Lightning Bolt.
In the past, Dismember has been the go-to black removal spell for Modern, since it can theoretically kill (just about) anything for just a single mana, and while Dismember will still have a place in Modern thanks to its color pie-breaking properties (if you're playing a Mono-Blue deck for example, Dismember will still be your best removal option), if you are playing a deck with black mana, Fatal Push is simply better than Dismember. I said this as soon as I saw the card and found that a surprising amount of people disagree, so let's take a minute to look at both spells in the context of the Modern format.
First off, I should say that I'm running off the assumption that you're playing a typical Modern deck with a bunch of fetch lands, which means you should always be able to cast Fatal Push for full value (killing a creature with CMC four or less). With this in mind, would you like to take a guess at how many popular creatures in Modern are killed by Dismember but not by Fatal Push?
There are a grand total of three creatures among the top 50 most played in the Modern format that die to Dismember but don't die to Fatal Push: Reality Smasher, Drowner of Hope, and Tasigur, the Golden Fang. Two of these are pretty much only played in a single deck, while Tasigur, the Golden Fang shows up in several decks but often as a one- or two-of. Still, if you are facing down one of these creatures, you'll be wishing you had a Dismember in hand. On the other hand, the other 47 most popular creatures in Modern either die to both black removal spells or die to neither, meaning that Fatal Push and Dismember are just as effective against 94% of the creatures that are heavily played in the Modern format. Now, you might be thinking, "Sure, but I want to cover that 6%, so I'll stick with Dismember," but there are a couple of more things to consider.
While it might not be obvious, there are some popular creatures that Fatal Push is way better at killing than Dismember. Early drops like Death's Shadow, Arcbound Ravager, and Tarmogoyf can all grow big enough that, at least some percentage of the time, Dismember can't kill them. Meanwhile, Fatal Push will always get the job done—it doesn't care if the Death's Shadow is a 1/1 or a 12/12.
Plus, Fatal Push is way, way better on the first turn of the game. As I mentioned in the intro, Modern is an extremely fast format, and you'll definitely find yourself in situations where you are almost forced to Dismember on Turn 1 to avoid taking damage from a Goblin Guide, Monastery Swiftspear, or Wild Nacatl. Doing so requires paying four life, and especially against aggressive Burn or Zoo decks, it's very possible that the four life you spend Dismembering on Turn 1 ends up being the reason you lose the game in the long run. With Fatal Push, you can now kill these creatures for free (as far as life is concerned), which is a huge plus for Fatal Push compared to Dismember.
On the other hand, if you are playing a weird Modern deck without any fetch lands (for example, a Mono-Black Devotion list), then Fatal Push gets much, much worse and Dismember is likely still the right choice for removal. However, even in fetch-less lists, Fatal Push should immediately replace Disfigure in both the main deck and the sideboard—even just killing things with CMC two or less, Fatal Push is better than Disfigure is just about every possible scenario.
As such, I believe that Fatal Push is the best removal spell that Wizards has printed since Path to Exile (discounting the color pie-breaking properties of Dismember) and that the new black instant will join Path to Exile and Lightning Bolt as the premiere removal spells in the Modern format. In fact, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if, when we look back at the Modern format six months from now, we find Fatal Push among the top 10 most played cards in the format.
As far as Standard is concerned, instead of assuming we will always have revolt like we should in Modern, it's probably safest to assume that Fatal Push will only be killing things with a CMC of two or less and then look at revolt as an upside that we might have sometimes. Even by this standard, Fatal Push is finally a good answer to Smuggler's Copter (which is currently the #1 most played card in Standard, showing up as a four-of in about 62% of decks). Instead of losing mana in the exchange (like with Murder or Essence Extraction) or even breaking even (like with Harnessed Lightning), we finally have a card that can kill Smuggler's Copter that costs less than the looter scooter itself. For this reason alone, I expect that Fatal Push will see a ton of play in Standard, and that's not even considering the fact that it kills Grim Flayer and most of the cards from various Humans, GR Energy, and Vehicles decks. However, simply being one-mana kill Smuggler's Copter with upside is enough that that Fatal Push will show up in main decks and may even be a reason to play black—the card is that good.
Conclusion
Anyway, that's all for today. What do you think? Is Fatal Push worthy of a spot alongside Lightning Bolt, Path to Exile, and Swords to Plowshares in the pantheon of greatest removal spells of all time? Let me know in the comments, and as always, leave your thoughts, ideas, opinions, and suggestions. You can reach me on Twitter @SaffronOlive or at SaffronOlive@MTGGoldfish.com.
