The Metagame #2

Hello and welcome to another edition of The Metagame! I hope you enjoyed my first article (which you can find here) and that you got some use out of it. To open our discussion let's take a look at the Standard Grand Prix that took place this past weekend and break it down.

The list differs slightly from what showed up at the Pro Tour and oddly enough doesn't feature any [[Hushwing Gryff] that players were using to combat Siege Rhino out of Abzan decks. This tells me Hushwing Gryff isn't where you want to be in Jeskai. There have been some Jeskai builds moving towards Hordeling Outburst over Goblin Rabblemaster, but three 1/1s isn't a big problem for Abzan; it's the potential card advantage from Goblin Rabblemaster that gives that deck fits. The biggest innovation of the weekend is the move towards Ashcloud Phoenix.

Ashcloud Phoenix, like Wingmate Roc is a threat that Abzan decks can't handle quite efficiently. Sure, you can use Hero's Downfall or Murderous Cut, but you still have to deal with the morph creature and/or its unmorphing. The Abzan deck is quite good at blocking, but not good at blocking in the air. That's the primary reason Wingmate Roc is absurd against Abzan, (the 2 for 1 nature of the card a shy 2nd); it's hard to take over a game when you're getting beat in the air and getting burned out. Ashcloud Phoenix requires an exile effect to be handled efficiently, but with most decks playing only Abzan Charm and Utter End, it's unlikely that Abzan will have the right removal.

Your Mono-Red matchup is pretty good: Game 1 might be a bit rough but Magma Spray and Arc Lightning are pretty powerful in the postboard games. Arc Lightning might be better than Anger of the Gods just because it's easier to cast AND doesn't kill your Seeker of the Way. Against control variants you can turn into a counterburn strategy with Keranos, God of Storms as your trump card. I imagine that you bring in Disdainful Stroke and/or Suspension Field for the Mardu matchup as a way to help contain their planeswalkers and Butcher of the Horde. I like this build overall and would consider it your starting point for a Jeskai deck if you wanted to improve your Abzan matchup.

With all that said, let's look at the data from Magic Online to see what the metagame is looking like:

Analysis and Discussion

While UB Control did not meet the 5% mark, it was close enough that I included it as an archetype rather than leaving it out. Compared to last week, the biggest gain seems to be Mardu Midrange which went from the "Other" category to making up 6% of the metagame. UB Control nearly fell into the "Other" category, while Temur Aggro went back to "Other", which makes that deck the biggest loser this week. I can only imagine the uptick in Mardu Midrange is due to people having more time to play with the deck and determining if it's good or not.

This week I separated Abzan Midrange and Abzan Aggro and the numbers were quite different from last week. Last week Abzan Midrange and Aggro combined for 32% of the metagame with them both splitting that percentage, but this week Abzan Aggro only made 6% of the metagame. I can only attribute that to the uprise of more Abzan and Mardu Midrange decks. Both decks are quite capable of killing/blocking the small creatures while gaining enough life that their late game can just overpower the Abzan Aggro deck. Given the downswing in Abzan Aggro decks, if you were thinking of playing a deck that has a bad/unfavorable matchup with it, I'd be more inclined to play it now rather than last week.

While Abzan Midrange is the most popular deck, it is not oppressive like a UW Delver or Mono Black Devotion from recent memory. It's a good stuff deck that has about 50/50 matchups across the board but it does contain some inherent weaknesses. So, how do you combat the deck? As a pilot of the deck starting from day 1 of the new format, I've played enough matches to know what I'm losing to and why that is. If you're looking to better your matchup against Abzan Midrange, here is what I would suggest you do:

1. Have a good early game. The Abzan Midrange deck doesn't come out of the gates swinging and usually only plays 1 spell a turn until turn 6, in which case they may be able to cast 2 spells if they have a Courser of Kruphix feeding them lands. So if you're casting 2 spells a turn against a deck that doesn't generate a lot of 2-for-1s early on, you might be able to keep them off balance long enough to disrupt their curve and force them to be a reactive deck rather than a proactive deck.
2. Generate 2-for-1s/tempo advantage. Some examples are:
   • Wingmate Rocs don't die to Elspeth, Sun's Champion and your opponent will have to use two spells to kill them both.
   • Sorin, Solemn Visitor, -2 to make a token. Your opponent is behind if they Hero's Downfall it on their turn. 
   • Genesis Hydra, Nissa Worldwaker, Ajani, Mentor of Heroes, Liliana Vess and Elspeth, Sun's Champion are other examples of cards that can generate a 2 for 1 and force the deck to be on the backfoot
3. Fly, fly, fly! Abzan Midrange is great at blocking except in the air. Mantis Rider, Butcher of the Horde, Wingmate Roc, Stormbreath Dragon, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, these are all cards that can attack successfully into Abzan. Evasion is key to being able to attack past Sylvan Caryatid and/or Courser of Kruphix.
4. Go big or go home. Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx based strategies can match up quite well against Abzan by simply going over the top and using more mana than they're able to. Imagine a board with Eidolon of Blossoms, Voyaging Satyr, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and some lands/green creatures with at least 1 enchantment in hand. You have the potential for an explosive turn, even more explosive if you manage to hit a Genesis Hydra along the way. The Abzan deck is good at blocking, but not so good when Nylea, God of the Hunt is in play.

Conclusion

Abzan Midrange is still the most popular deck, but it's not unbeatable nor is it oppressive. Mardu Midrange seems to have established itself as a solid archetype now that people have had enough time to play with the deck since Brad Nelson top 8'ed GP: Los Angeles. Jeskai Aggro, while being the 2nd most popular deck, actually seems to be winning more trophies than Abzan. It's won at least 3 SCG Opens and won the last Standard Grand Prix, so it's definitely a force to be reckoned with. There's enough "Other" decks laying out there that the metagame seems wide open and any archetype can take down a trophy in any given week. But hey, don't take my word for it:

Really like the current standard though, seems like you can break it every week. And that's coming from a person who hates constructed :)

— Martin Juza (@Juzam_) October 31, 2014

If you have any comments, questions, or concerns please leave them in the comments section below! If you have any suggestions or improvements for this series I'd be quite eager to listen to what you have to say. Next week I'll talk more about Standard and take a look at Modern a.k.a. Treasure Cruise.dek.

Thank you for reading!

@MarcosPMA on Twitter, MarcosPMA on MTGO