Vintage 101: It's Been... One Month Since They Restricted Things
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're going to be taking a look at where Vintage is one month after the restrictions of Urza's Saga and Vexing Bauble. This is something we'll keep checking back in on as we head up into Eternal Weekend this year, since our next window of BnR isn't until after those events. We've also got some news on some MTGO changes to Challenge events, as well some Challenges to discuss.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Vintage - One Month Past Restriction
It's officially been one month since the restrictions of Urza's Saga and Vexing Bauble in Vintage, and we can now start to get a sense of what the metagame is shaping up to look like. All of this data comes from the Vintage Streamer's Discord efforts spearheaded by our good friend Justin Gennari. You can find the specific date period of 8/26/2024 - 9/24/2024 here. You can also find the Pre-Restriction data from 7/26/2024 - 8/26/2024 here. I'll be referencing both data sets throughout this section.
Let's first take a look at the graphs since the restrictions.
Compare this to the data graphs from before the restriction.
The current format at large seems to be utterly defined by the presence of both Lurrus and Bazaar strategies, with the biggest Bazaar strategy being Dredge overall. The Lurrus decks seem to be split across both Esper and Dimir Lurrus builds. This also includes any builds like Lurrus DRS, Lurrus Breach, etc. Pretty much any build playing Lurrus is under this category. Initiative also is up there in terms of metagame representation. In fact the current Top 5 represented decks of the format are:
- Dredge - 49.6% MWP w/o Mirrors
- Initiative - 50.7% MWP w/o Mirrors
- Esper Lurrus - 52.4% MWP w/o Mirrors
- Jewel Shops - 52.0% MWP w/o Mirrors
- Dimir Lurrus - 57.1% MWP w/o Mirrors
Of these decks in the "Top 5" represented over the month, Dimir Lurrus has had the strongest win rates w/o mirrors at a 57.1% MWP. This is actually up from the Pre-Restriction period of Lurrus Saga for a similar time frame, which had a 52.5% MWP w/o Mirrors. Now, Lurrus Saga in the Pre-Restriction data set was not split between the different color combinations (Esper, Dimir, UW), but I do think this shows that Lurrus in general actually got better because of the restrictions instead of getting worse. This is something we definitely expected to see occur from the Lurrus perspective, as freeing Saga to a one of in the deck allows the deck's mana to adjust better, and newer threats that the deck has received like Psychic Frog and Tamiyo, Inquisitive Student. Lurrus continues to show that it is very powerful in the current metagame because of this, and continues to push the format.
The second deck with the next highest win rate also just happens to be a Lurrus deck, in the form of Esper Lurrus. This classification didn't exist in the Pre-Restriction but the data does seem to line up that this is a good deck in the current format, just not as good overall as Dimir Lurrus. Amusingly enough, Esper Lurrus has a higher metagame percentage than Dimir Lurrus, but not by a ton (16 decks).
Jewel Shops is the next non-Lurrus deck with a 52% non-Mirror win rate. Prior to the restriction, Jewel Shops had a 51.2% non-Mirror win rate. This is another deck that very interestingly was one of the most played decks prior to the restriction that a lot of folks expected to take a big hit due to their backup plan of Saga going away. So what happened here? Why does this deck suddenly seem better? Well, one of the big answers there lies in another card that was printed in Modern Horizons 3 that has been a huge addition to the deck and that is Sink into Stupor. Having an effect that bounces any spell or nonland permanent an opponent controls that is also a land that also pitches to Force is incredibly powerful and has been a definite boon for Jewel as a deck overall. Jewel is definitely a deck that has gotten better without the restriction, and doesn't show much signs of stopping.
Initiative is also here, coming in at 50.7% non-Mirror win rate but with a large amount of representation. Initiative's hit in all of this was the fact that they were playing four Vexing Bauble main before this, a move I personally didn't think was that great in the long term scheme of things. Initiative being a deck that wants to hit the ground running playing a set-up Prison piece that shut off your ability to cast cards like Solitude did always feel rather weird to me. I don't think this deck moved around too much in the short term, because Initiative is still a very powerful mechanic and many of these cards are individually strong, and this deck despite all of this was actually doing rather poorly in the Pre-Restriction period (48.5% non-Mirror win rate) that I'm not surprised to see a bump in this. It seems like a great deck to capitalize on the current format, but I will be curious to see how long it sticks.
Finally, at the bottom of the Top 5 in terms of win-rate, but right at the top in terms of metagame percentage, we have Dredge. Realistically, Dredge is probably the deck to survive any amount of Bazaar wars for dominance, as opposed to CounterVine and AggroVine decks (which people claimed would be very good post restriction) as Dredge is the one Bazaar deck that plays the game on a completely different axis than any of the others, and seems like a strong deck to oppose current strategies of "fair" Magic gameplay. While you're trying to resolve your Lurrus and Psychic Frog, Dredge is making 2/2s with Bridge from Below and also having a wide army with Prized Amalgam, Hollow One, etc. It's exceptionally explosive. Dredge did dip a bit in win rate from a pre-Restriction of 50% non-Mirror to 49.6% non-Mirror, but it's metagame share over a month went from 45 decks to 131, which is absolutely insane. Dredge is incredibly popular at this juncture, even if it does have angles at which it can be attacked.
So, what does this all mean? Have we finally fixed Vintage? Is things better? I personally don't think things are truly better or worse still, they are simply just different, and while fewer games are being wrapped up with Construct tokens, there's a lot more unpredictability to this current format and decks that lost options are better than they were before the restriction even. I think Vintage is always generally "fun" for the most part, as in it's a format that even if there's some amount of unhealthy nature to it, it can still be fun to play, but I don't think this really did too much to shift anything that wasn't already going on. Lurrus is still super powerful, Jewel is still very good, and Dredge is back as one of the most played decks.
I am curious what happens next going into Eternal Weekend and I will be doing another one of these for both October and November so we can see where we are at.
What are your thoughts on the current metagame? Please feel free to comment and let me know what you think!
Big Changes to Magic Online Challenge Prizing for Format Challenges
This past week a very large change to some of how Magic Online is handling prizing for Format Challenges. Format Challenges are the weekly events that we cover here. The full link to the recent blog describing these changes as of the writing of this article can be found here.
Much of the reasoning behind these changes is centered around feedback provided by the community on the expansion of Constructed Format Challenges (as Daybreak has added more Challenges to the schedule throughout the week and weekend to meet certain demand) and that specifically too many Treasure Chests and Play Points were entering the system. Part of this change involves reducing the cost to enter a Constructed Format Challenge to 25 Event Tickets or 250 Play Points (which is down 5 tickets from before).
I won't go too much deeper into these changes, but they have been pretty hotly contested from the community at large. Something like this does take some time to understand how much it impacts things in an economical sense, but there have been some Challenges this past week that have failed to fire, but it's currently unknown if the issue with these Challenges is 100% directly tied to these changes. We'll be monitoring how things go with this to get a feel with where things are going, as Daybreak has shown time and time again that they are willing to work with the community to make changes with feedback.
Vintage Challenge 32 9/19
The first Challenge event of the weekend was the Thursday Challenge. This event had 43 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Jewel was the most popular deck of the event, but despite a strong finish it's win rate was really dragged down. Dredge also was similarly positioned. Dimir Lurrus and Sphere Shops both looked good here, as did Esper Lurrus.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Breach | 1st | TrueHero |
| Dimir Lurrus | 2nd | bless_von |
| Dimir Lurrus | 3rd | O_danielakos |
| Jewel Shops | 4th | ecobaronen |
| Sphere Shops | 5th | Montolio |
| Esper Lurrus | 6th | Giusty |
| Dredge | 7th | Martin_Dominguez |
| 4C DRS | 8th | WWolf |
Mostly Lurrus and Shops here, with a smattering of Bazaar. At the end of the event it was Breach that won.
Waterlogged Teachings seems like an incredibly interesting card here, since it is functionally a tutor for things like Ancestral, Brain Freeze, but it can also nab Hullbreacher AND Orcish Bowmasters which is pretty cool.
In Second Place we had Dimir Lurrus.
Pretty solid looking list here. Leaning so much on the power of Psychic Frog as that card has done well across multiple formats, and it is very good here in Vintage as well. Spell Pierce also seems to be in a great place in current Vintage.
At the bottom of the Top 8 we had 4C DRS.
Having access to DRS and Frog, plus things like Wrenn and Six (pitch a land to Frog, tick back up with Wrenn to get it back seems hype) and Dack Fayden. This list looks like something I would play for sure.
Vintage Challenge 32 9/20
The second Challenge event of the weekend was the Friday Challenge. This event had 33 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Jewel Shops was the most popular deck again here, with a slightly better win rate. Doomsday looked great here, as did Dimir Lurrus and Lurrus DRS. Despite a top finish, Dredge had a less than 50% win rate.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus DRS | 1st | unluckymonkey |
| Dimir Lurrus | 2nd | Jumba |
| Doomsday | 3rd | Enrichetta |
| Lurrus DRS | 4th | etoustar |
| Jewel Shops | 5th | CLTLegacyLeague |
| Doomsday | 6th | ecobaronen |
| Dredge | 7th | PS17 |
| Lurrus Breach | 8th | s063 |
Some Lurrus, some Doomsday, some Dredge, but mostly a lot of Lurrus. At the end of the event it was Lurrus DRS that won.
This deck has some cool stuff in it. Expressive Iteration and Dauthi Voidwalker both seem super sweet.
In Second Place we had Dimir Lurrus.
Another MH3 card that has really risen through the ranks across several formats and is seeing some play here is Consign to Memory. The versatility of that card is really strong.
Also in this Top 8 we had Doomsday.
Very straightforward list here. I like the surveil land in this list. It's pretty slick overall.
Vintage Challenge 32 9/21
The final Challenge event of the weekend was the Saturday Challenge. This event had 43 players in it thanks to the data collected by the Vintage Streamer's Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Dredge was the most popular deck here and it had a strong win rate. Dimir Lurrus also looked quite good, as did BUG and Doomsday.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Dredge | 1st | matttothec |
| Initiative | 2nd | caio402 |
| Dredge | 3rd | Firetruck |
| Jewel Shops | 4th | oosunq |
| Dimir Lurrus | 5th | Jpsn54 |
| BUG | 6th | MathiasHardStyle |
| Dimir Lurrus | 7th | O_danielakos |
| Oath | 8th | frostyyy_ |
Very interesting Top 8 here. At the end of the event it was Dredge that won.
Solid list overall here. I like the Therapy/Bridge variations. They feel more explosive over the initial part of the game.
In Second Place we had Initiative.
The Plow/March split here is pretty interesting. I kinda like it. They both deal with different things overall, which is cool.
At the bottom of the Top 8 we had Oath.
Into the Flood Maw is such a sweet card, to be honest. The downside it typically has in smaller formats is actually a big upside in Vintage and especially in a deck like this. Giving your opponent a creature in Oath? Yeah, that's the good stuff.
Around the Web
- Charlotte Legacy League has a video on Grixis Breach. Check it out here.
- Noprops has a video on Jewel Shops. Check it out here.
- Montolio has a video on Lurrus Shops. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
If you have a sweet and spicy decklist you'd like to see here, please feel free to reach out to me! I will definitely feature it!
Glaring Fleshraker PO seems fun.
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
