Vintage 101: April 2026 Metagame Check-In
Howdy folks! It's time yet again for another edition of Vintage 101! I'm your host, Joe Dyer, and this week we're taking a look at where Vintage is at right before the release of Secrets of Strixhaven! In addition, we've got our weekly recap and Challenge data from last week.
Without further ado, let's dive right in!
Vintage Before the Secrets
We are imminently staring down the release of Secrets of Strixhaven on MTGO, so it seemed like a good time to take a look at where Vintage is since the major release of Edge of Eternities (the last major printing of cards that impacted Vintage in the form of Tezzeret, Cruel Captain). You can find this data set here, thanks to our good friend Justin Gennari.
So, let's look at the graphical data.
This data set is pretty large since July of 2025 with Tezzeret's printing at around 7.4k entries. Quite a lot of good data and a nice sample size. Since that time, Lurrus decks in general are around 36.7% of the overall metagame. This is sort of a misnomer, though, as I've explained before on these recaps that the data set is lumping all decks that play Lurrus as a companion into one major macro archetype statistic. However, all of the decks that encompass Lurrus overall are all very different. There are fair decks, aggro decks, and even combo decks all underneath this single macro archetype. If you were to break this out like this, things would probably look a little different. Really what this statistic is telling us is that around 36.7% of the time, the deck you're playing against will have Lurrus as the companion. It's not going to tell you what Lurrus deck the person is playing.
That being said, Lurrus being a tell will give you a good indication of potentially what deck the opponent might be on. After all, there are a number of different options, but having Lurrus does mean you have a smaller set of decks to think about in that bubble than the entirety of Vintage.
At a whopping 1,028 decks since July, Initiative is the most played deck in Vintage. However, that being said, the deck's non-mirror win rate sits just below 50% at 49.6%. Initiative is a deck that has proven to wax and wane lately. It's dipped out of the conversation for a few weeks, but its overall impact on Vintage cannot be denied. This is a deck that drags in players because of how straightforward it is and how strong it can be. It's also an aggro deck that doesn't require copies of Mishra's Workshop or Bazaar of Baghdad, and that in itself is attractive to people in the format.
I am pretty happy with where Initiative sits within Vintage's encapsulation of pillars, and I do think it is a definitive pillar of the format, even if it does disappear every now and then.
At over 200 copies less, here is Dimir Lurrus, taking up second place with a 53.7% non-mirror win rate. Dimir is one of two Lurrus variants that are considered "fair" decks, the other being Esper Lurrus. These decks are "fair" because their game plan hinges on casting creatures and turning them sideways. Cards like Psychic Frog and Orcish Bowmasters are part of the conversation. The Dimir variant has a bit of a better win rate than Esper does, but not really by much, and if we combine both, they have around a 52.71% win rate, which is fine and right in line with Vintage power level.
It's very reasonable to have a fair deck as a top deck of the format, as most formats that this occurs with tend to be very good in terms of raw format health. Lurrus is also a major pillar of the format, so having one of the most played decks be from that pillar ultimately makes sense.
Shops is another major pillar of Vintage, and Raker Shops is one of the decks that gained the most out of the printing of Tezzeret, Cruel Captain. It's an extremely solid card in these decks. It goes and gets cards like Sensei's Divining Top, which allows you to kill quickly with Fleshraker. Raker has had a pretty solid win rate since then with a 52.8% non-mirror. The various Shops decks all jockey for position month to month, but it seems like overall Raker has been one of the most popular builds, and I think Tezz is a huge reason why that is.
People are always going to recognize the power of Mishra's Workshop, enough to it being a point of contention often, but I think right now these decks seem very reasonable.
As we keep running through the pillars of Vintage, it's no surprise that one of the Top 5 most played decks is another pillar in the form of Dredge. Bazaar of Baghdad decks will always be a major player in the format, but it does seem like the best of them will and probably will always be Dredge. Sure, there are decks like Squee Countervine and the more slanted Hogaak AggroVine decks, but it looks like as always Dredge does reign supreme in this space. Unfortunately for all the Bazaar strategies, all of them don't really have good win rates.
Dredge on its own is around 45.9% non-mirror, and it has certainly over this time had good weekends and bad ones. This is the downside of a deck that is so powerful that every deck in the format has to respect its presence, but also one that falls hard to very targeted forms of hate. It's a little bit warping, but that's the overall nature of Vintage.
Rounding out the Top 5 most played decks since the printing of Tezz is another pillar wrapped in a slightly different type of pillar. Paradoxical Outcome is one of those decks that's just existed since the printing of the card, but Lurrus as a companion with the deck has certainly made waves with the strategy. It's also the first major spell-based combo deck pillar we've seen in this set of decks, which again, is pretty fine. Its win rate is very reasonable at 51.9% overall.
Overall, I think Vintage at this point in time is super healthy and continues to look fun and interesting. There's lots of space still to explore, and the format feels like it is managing new additions just fine. I honestly don't expect Strixhaven to move the needle too much in this regard.
Are you enjoying Vintage? Let me know in the comments below!
Weekly MTGO Recap
As always, thanks to Justin Gennari for his community-supported data and weekly recaps. You can find his social media info here. This past week was a pretty minimal week with only the regular events to look at.
We had the following events this past week:
| Event Name | Top 32 Link | Data Sheet Link | Number of Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vintage Challenge 32 4/16/2026 | Top 32 | Data Sheet | 39 |
| Vintage Challenge 32 4/17/2026 | Top 32 | Data Sheet | 46 |
| Vintage Challenge 32 4/18/2026 | Top 32 | Data Sheet | 38 |
| Vintage Challenge 32 4/19/2026 | Top 32 | Data Sheet | 37 |
Combined, this past week's events amounted to around 160 entries, which isn't much more than last week's events at 159. Let's look at the graphical data.
Lurrus decks made up a big part of last week's metagame, as we expected to see. Again, as we mentioned before, the data merges all Lurrus decks into one macro archetype, but these decks have a bunch of different forms to them from aggro, control, tempo, and combo. They're all different and all play a little differently.
After several weeks of not being too heavily played, Initiative jumped up to the top of the format in terms of play rate for the week while it had a 53.5% non-mirror win rate, which seems pretty reasonable, and was right in line with where it was the week before while increasing in play rate from last week. Initiative is a deck that has some strong gameplay to it, but people have spent a bit figuring out how to beat it, and it definitely dropped in metagame share for more than a few weeks. I think this is just another situation where the format is cycling around the pillars, and that's a good thing to see. This is what metagames are supposed to do in the week to week.
Dredge took the second most played spot of the week, and despite a few good finishes here or there, its overall win rate sat at around 41.2% non-mirror. This seems rather in line with a deck that literally every other deck in the format respects to the point of having multiple slots in their sideboards for. Good results when not respected, poor when people remember it exists.
Jewel Shops was third in terms of play rate, and it did pretty reasonably at 52.4% non-mirror. This is down from last week's results at just around one more list than last week. This seems rather fine, and again, just cycling in and out of the overall metagame is great. Shops decks will always be decks to respect in Vintage just like Dredge, so them being part of every weekly metagame just makes sense.
Speaking of Shops, Raker Shops showed up here but dropped from most played last week to fourth most played this week. The deck had a better win rate than last week at around 53.6%, which is again fairly in line with Vintage. It's kind of nice that we've got a number of different Shops lists in the format. It does make for some interesting gameplay to determine what Shops deck is which on the fly, as they share a number of cards.
It is also very interesting to see which of the Shops builds does well in various weeks. Some weeks it's Raker, some it's Jewel, others it's Sphere Shops. I think this past week had a lot of similarities in win rates among all three builds, so they all seemed rather in line with the rest of the format.
Rounding out the top five decks was Lurrus Breach. Despite being very popular this week and having some good results, the deck had a 40.3% non-mirror win rate. I think Lurrus PO was likely a better choice this past week, but this is how things tend to roll for metagame shifts.
I think Vintage looked great this past week. Shout out to that one Doomsday player who had a 75.2% non-mirror win rate. Pretty awesome stuff.
Vintage Challenge 32 4/16/2026
The first Challenge event we are covering this weekend was the Thursday event. This event had 39 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
Jewel Shops was the most played deck of the event, sitting right in the middle at 50% win rate. Esper Lurrus and Initiative both did pretty well here, while Dredge, despite a Top 8, had a poorer performance. Lurrus Breach did not do well at all.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Lurrus DRS | 1st | Kenzaburo |
| Jewel Shops | 2nd | RogeDeckWins |
| Esper Lurrus | 3rd | lordoflifegain |
| Lurrus PO | 4th | mortr3d |
| Oath | 5th | Ecoscuro |
| Esper Lurrus | 6th | Ark4n |
| Initiative | 7th | Capitano_CL |
| Dredge | 8th | oosunq |
Pretty interesting Top 8. At the end of the event, it was Lurrus DRS that won.
This is a cool-looking list. It's unique to see a list with only two DRS instead of the full four, though. I think probably the best card here is just Psychic Frog.
In Second Place, we had Jewel Shops.
This is pretty stock looking. I love the copy of Unable to Scream in the sideboard. It's such a cool card.
Also in this Top 8, we had Oath.
Raph & Mikey showing up again in a list is pretty cool. When I played this a few weeks ago, I felt that the card was very good and had enabled some really strong lines that you couldn't normally get out of Oath. Being able to attack for 14 in a turn and possibly hit the Time Walk is superb.
Vintage Challenge 32 4/18/2026
The final Challenge event we are covering this weekend was the Saturday event. This event had 38 players in it thanks to the MTGO Vintage Discord.
You can find the Top 32 decklists for this event here and the data sheet here.
"Other Lurrus" was the most played deck, and according to the data sheet, these decks amounted to Orzhov Aggro/Cats-based decks. Kind of sweet. It did have a fairly poor win rate despite a good finish for one of them. Oath did very well, as did Initiative.
Let's take a look at the Top 8.
| Deck Name | Placing | MTGO Username |
|---|---|---|
| Initiative | 1st | Marghar |
| Lurrus PO | 2nd | Miharu_Fuyumiya |
| Dredge | 3rd | JayCutler |
| Orzhov Lurrus | 4th | LucasG1ggs |
| Dimir Lurrus | 5th | gusti99 |
| Oath | 6th | Wesal |
| Lurrus PO | 7th | mourning_palace |
| Esper Lurrus | 8th | JakeTMS |
Fair bit of Lurrus, but at the end of the event, it was Initiative that won.
I really just continually dislike four Void Mirror in these lists, but that's definitely my personal preference for this deck. Light of Day is a super sweet addition to the sideboard, by being able to cut off stuff like Psychic Frog.
In Second Place, we had Lurrus PO.
Whew, this is a list. Straight up four Commandeer in the sideboard? Really cool stuff. Also, Test of Talents is a sweet little inclusion too.
Also in this Top 8 is the aforementioned Orzhov Lurrus deck.
The good old Gennari special here, since he did well with this last week, so it seems like a bunch of people took up the deck to try it. Mai, Scornful Striker seems incredibly good in Vintage right now.
Around the Web
- Justin Gennari always has stuff for us.
- Kindamtg has a video on Reanimator. Check it out here.
- StraddaG is playing Esper Lurrus. Check it out here.
- ValueBeforeVictory looks at Vintage prior to Strixhaven. Check it out here.
- BoshNRoll is playing Lurrus PO. Check it out here.
The Spice Corner
LANDS.
Wrapping Up
That's all the time we have this week, folks! Thanks for your continued support of the column, and join me next week as we continue our journey into Vintage!
As always, you can reach me at my Link Tree! In addition, you can always reach me on the MTGGoldfish Discord Server and the Vintage Streamers Discord.
Until next time!
